Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at two of Europe's form sides, both unbeaten and scoring heavily in their last five matches, as Paris Saint-Germain host Barcelona in the Champions League.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two unbeaten attacks colliding in Paris
Two unbeaten attacks colliding in Paris
Paris Saint-Germain have won five matches in a row in all competitions, scoring 16 and conceding just 5, including a 4-2 win away at Manchester City in the Champions League last time out. Barcelona have been just as relentless: five straight wins, 21 goals scored to 6 conceded, with three or more goals in every single one of those matches.
PSG sit only sixth in Ligue 1 after dropping points earlier in the season, while Barcelona are the only unbeaten side left in La Liga, but neither has shown any sign of easing off in attack recently. When two sides scoring at this rate meet, a low-scoring, cagey occasion is the exception rather than the rule.
The market prices over 3.5 goals at 1.58, an implied 63.3% chance. Given how both sides have performed over their last five matches, that looks like fair value rather than an inflated line.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Paris Saint-Germain goals, last 5 games16 scored, 5 conceded
- Barcelona goals, last 5 games21 scored, 6 conceded
- Games with 3+ total goals (PSG, last 5)4 of 5
- Games with 3+ total goals (Barcelona, last 5)5 of 5
- Over 3.5 goals implied probability @1.5863.3%
Team news
No confirmed starting line-up was available for either side six days out from kick-off.
Both sides have mostly beaten weaker opposition in this stretch, and a cagier Champions League occasion between two heavyweights can produce fewer clear chances than a league fixture against a struggling team. PSG's one league loss this season came in a tight, low-scoring game at Monaco, so a repeat of that caution is the main way the total stays under.
Verdict
Over 3.5 goals at 1.58 implies a 63.3% chance of four or more goals in the match. PSG and Barcelona have both scored three or more goals in four of their last five matches apiece, and neither side looks to be building towards a conservative, cagey performance here. We make Over 3.5 goals the pick at 1.58.
- Paris Saint-Germain fixtures and results, ESPN — recent form and goal data
- Barcelona fixtures and results, ESPN — recent form and goal data
- Ligue 1 standings, ESPN
- La Liga standings, ESPN
- Unibet UK, via the Kambi odds feed — goals market
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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