Sevilla vs Barcelona: over 3.5 goals at 1.86
Barcelona have 21 league goals in five games, and four of the last five meetings with Sevilla had four goals or more. We'll take the goals line, not the short price on the away win.
The case for goals
Barcelona are five from five in La Liga with 21 goals scored and 4 conceded. The recent scores tell the story: 2-0 against Athletic Club, 5-2 against Rayo Vallecano, 5-0 at Valencia and 4-2 at Levante. Four of their five league matches have produced four goals or more. They also beat Feyenoord 5-1 in the Champions League.
Sevilla are not a side who shut games down. They sit sixth on 10 points, but they have conceded 4 goals in three home league games, including a 3-1 home defeat by Atlético Madrid. When a team with this much firepower visits a home side that likes to play, the game tends to open up.
History points the same way. The last five meetings finished 5-2, 4-1, 1-4, 5-1 and 1-2. Four of those five had four goals or more, and two of them were played in Seville. At 1.86 the market gives over 3.5 a 53.8% chance. We think it is slightly higher than that.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Barcelona league goals (5 games)21
- 4+ goals in Barcelona league games4 of 5
- 4+ goals in last 5 meetings4 of 5
- Sevilla home league goals conceded4 in 3
- Over 3.5 implied probability53.8%
Team news
We had not found a confirmed injury or suspension list from either club or a major outlet at the time of writing on Tuesday evening. Check the official line-ups, due about an hour before kick-off, before betting.
Barcelona can kill a game at 2-0 and manage it, as they did against Athletic Club. Sevilla's last two league games had one and two goals. If Sevilla sit deep, 3-0 or 2-1 is a real outcome.
Verdict
Over 3.5 goals at 1.86 implies a 53.8% chance. We make it about 57% on Barcelona's scoring rate and the recent meetings. A small edge, so 1 unit.