Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction and Tips: Goals
Tom Ashworth looks at two leaky defences as Fiorentina host Atalanta at the Franchi.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two defences that cannot keep anyone out
Fiorentina's season has gone wrong in almost every way that matters for a goals bet: eighteenth in Serie A after seven rounds, one win, eight goals scored and seventeen conceded - the division's second-worst defensive record. Their two most recent home league games have followed the pattern: a 1-1 draw with Napoli and a 1-3 defeat to Como, four goals conceded in two games at the Franchi.
Atalanta are no defensive wall themselves. Eleventh with three wins from seven, they have shipped eleven goals already this season, and their two most recent away league trips - a 2-0 loss at Juventus and a 3-2 defeat at AC Milan - produced five goals between the two matches.
We have not pulled a full ten-game log for either side this run, and have not checked team news for either camp with five days still to go, so this is built on the season-wide numbers plus those four most recent venue-specific results rather than the full shots-based method.
Both of those factors point the same way: a leaking Fiorentina defence at home, and an Atalanta side breached in both of its recent away games. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.68, and with both sides' last two matches in this exact split producing three or more goals, that looks good enough to back at 0.75 units.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Fiorentina league record (7 games)1W-1D-5L, 4 pts (18th)
- Atalanta league record (7 games)3W-0D-4L, 9 pts (11th)
- Fiorentina goals for/against8 for, 17 against
- Atalanta goals for/against10 for, 11 against
- Fiorentina's last 2 home league games1-1 Napoli, 1-3 Como (4 conceded)
- Atalanta's last 2 away league games0-2 at Juventus, 2-3 at AC Milan (5 scored by both sides)
Team news
We have not checked team news for either camp with this fixture still five days away, and have not pulled a full ten-game shots-based log for this run - the case below rests on the season-wide numbers plus the four most recent venue-specific results.
<p>Fiorentina have been poor enough this season that a defensive, low-scoring performance from a team with nothing to lose is possible, and Atalanta have had games where they shut up shop. The small four-game sample used for the venue splits could reverse on any given night.</p>
Verdict
Both sides have conceded heavily in their most recent matches at this specific venue split, and Fiorentina's season-wide defensive numbers are among the worst in Serie A. Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 looks fair value, backed at 0.75 units.
- ESPN Serie A standings - league positions and season goal totals
- ESPN: Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli and Fiorentina 1-3 Como - home corner/goal boxscores
- Kambi/Unibet UK odds feed - 1X2 and total goals prices
Only bets goals markets: totals, both teams to score and team goals. Prices every match from expected goals and shot volume before he looks at a line.
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