Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar: AZ or draw at 2.38
Sunderland are priced like a side in form. They are not. AZ are unbeaten, scoring freely, and the double chance on the visitors is bigger than it should be.
The case against the favourite
The market has Sunderland at around 1.62 to win. That is a price for a confident home side. Sunderland have taken four points from four Premier League games, beat Fulham 1-0, drew 1-1 with Brentford, and lost to Ipswich and Arsenal. They have scored three league goals. Their other win in the last five was 1-0 at Hull in the Carabao Cup.
AZ are a different animal on current form. They are unbeaten in the Eredivisie with five wins and a draw, 17 goals scored and six conceded. Their last five read 4-1, 2-0, 5-2, 3-2 and 1-1. They also beat PSV 4-0 in the Johan Cruyff Shield. They have scored in every competitive match this season, and they are Europe regulars rather than first-timers.
I do not need AZ to win. I need Sunderland not to. The double chance covers the draw, and a tight first European night at the Stadium of Light could easily end level. At 2.38 I am getting a bigger price than the 1X2 odds imply.
Form guide
Key numbers
- AZ Eredivisie record (26/27)W5 D1 L0
- AZ league goals (6 games)17 scored, 6 conceded
- Sunderland league goals (4 games)3 scored, 5 conceded
- Sunderland Premier League wins (26/27)1 of 4
- AZ record on previous trips to EnglandLost 11 of 11
Team news
Sports Mole reports Sunderland are without Habib Diarra (thigh) and Romaine Mundle (knee). Reinildo Mandava was sent off against Arsenal but the ban is domestic only, so he is available.
AZ are missing midfielder Kees Smit (groin), right-back Denso Kasius (groin) and Stije Resink (knee), while goalkeeper Hobie Verhulst is ineligible.
AZ have lost all 11 of their previous European trips to England, and losing Kees Smit takes quality out of their midfield. Sunderland's home games have been tight, so a scrappy 1-0 home win is the result that beats this bet.
Verdict
At 2.38 the market gives AZ or the draw an implied probability of 42.0%. I make it about 46%. There is value, but the England record keeps me honest: 0.5 units.