Hungary vs Northern Ireland Prediction and Tips: Double Chance

Northern Ireland's clean sheet run and Hungary's thin home sample

Group B2 goes to its final round on 17 November with Northern Ireland top on 8 points (W2 D2 L0) and Hungary second on 7 (W2 D1 L1), the pair meeting in Budapest in a game that could settle the group between them. Northern Ireland have been the campaign's quiet story: they have not lost, and they have not conceded, in four games.

The two sides have already met once, in Belfast on 28 September, and it finished 0-0 - Hungary unable to find a way through even on a day they would have fancied their chances. Hungary's only home fixture in the group so far was a 1-0 win over bottom side Georgia, a small and soft sample to lean on against a side with a much better defensive record than Georgia's.

Callum's method starts with a probability before the price. Hungary's 1.85 to win outright implies a touch under 54% before the bookmaker's margin is stripped out - a generous read of one home win over the group's weakest team against a Northern Ireland side that has not lost all campaign. That is not enough to make Northern Ireland favourites away from home, but it is enough to lean against Hungary needing to win it.

At that price, the preferred line is Northern Ireland or draw (double chance) at 1.85, 1 unit - backing the defensive record to hold rather than backing Northern Ireland to win it outright.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Northern Ireland goals conceded, Group B2 (4 games)0
• Northern Ireland away record, Group B22 wins from 2 (1-0 at Georgia, 3-0 at Ukraine)
• Hungary home record, Group B21 win from 1 (1-0 v Georgia)
• First meeting, 28 SepNorthern Ireland 0-0 Hungary, in Belfast

Team news

Four days out from kick-off neither federation has named a starting line-up. Northern Ireland's back line has been settled all campaign; any late change there matters more than it would for most sides given how much of this pick rests on their defensive record.

Verdict

Hungary's 1.85 to win outright implies a touch under 54% before the overround, which is a generous read of one home win over the group's weakest side. Northern Ireland have not lost all campaign, have not conceded all campaign, and have already shown in Belfast that they can keep Hungary at arm's length. Northern Ireland or draw (double chance) at 1.85, 1 unit.