Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City: Forest -1 at 2.05
Coventry have lost all four league games without scoring, and they play a cup tie on Wednesday while Forest rest. A Forest win by two or more pays, and a one-goal win gives the stake back.
The case for a Forest margin
Coventry's return to the top flight has been brutal. Four league games, four defeats, no goals and ten conceded. BBC Sport notes they are only the fifth side in English top-flight history to lose their first four games without scoring. They have also lost their last 46 Premier League matches in which they conceded first. Sunday's 5-0 home defeat by Brighton was the joint-heaviest of Frank Lampard's managerial career.
Forest are finding their feet under Oliver Glasner. After a 2-2 at Liverpool and a 0-0 with Spurs, they won 2-1 at Villa Park, where BBC Sport counted 22 shots and 32 touches in Villa's box. Forest went out of the Carabao Cup to Leeds in August, so they have a full week to prepare. Coventry host Aston Villa in that competition on Wednesday night.
The handicap fits the picture. Coventry have lost two of their four league games by three goals or more. If Forest score first, Coventry's record says they don't come back. And if Forest only win by one, the stake comes back.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Coventry league goals (26/27)0 in 4
- Coventry league goals conceded10 in 4
- Coventry league defeats by 3+ goals2 of 4
- Forest shots at Aston Villa (BBC)22
- Forest league recordW1 D2 L1
Team news
The Nottingham Post reported that Forest will be without centre-back Nikola Milenkovic (hamstring) until after the international break. Fellow centre-back Jair Cunha is a doubt with hamstring tightness. Murillo played the full 90 minutes at Villa despite a knee problem, and Nicolo Savona is still out after knee surgery.
Coventry striker Taiwo Awoniyi was sent off for an elbow against Brighton. A straight red for violent conduct normally carries a three-match ban. Lampard's side also host Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday.
Forest have won only one of four league games and have scored more than once in only two of them. With Milenkovic out and Cunha doubtful, their defence is patched. Coventry created chances against Manchester City and Brighton before collapsing, so a narrow 1-0 grind is a real possibility.
Verdict
2.05 implies 48.8%. Leaving out the one-goal win (a push), I make a Forest win by two or more about 40% and a draw or Coventry win about 37%. That means the bet wins roughly 52% of the times it settles. The edge is thin and the Forest defence is patched, so 0.5 units.