Millwall vs West Ham: West Ham to win at 1.77

The case for the leaders

West Ham have adjusted to the Championship quickly. After a slow start (2-2 at Burnley, 1-2 at home to Charlton, 1-1 at Watford) they have won four in a row: 4-2 v Wolves, 3-0 v Derby, 3-2 at Bolton and 6-0 v Wrexham. That is 17 goals in four games and 20 in seven, the most in the division. BBC Sport's Sam Parkin called it "pretty ominous" for the rest of the league.

Millwall are harder to read. They have been strong at The Den at times, beating Norwich 3-0 and Bolton 4-0, but they also lost 3-0 at home to Wrexham. Away from home they were beaten 5-1 at Southampton and 3-1 at Blackburn. Alex Neil's side have lost three of their last four league games and conceded 11 in that run.

Nuno Espirito Santo can call on Jarrod Bowen, Manor Solomon, Joel Piroe and Taty Castellanos, and all four scored on Friday. Few Championship defences cope with that, and Millwall's recent record says theirs won't. I expect West Ham to win more often than the price suggests.

Form guide

Key numbers

• West Ham league goals (26/27)20 in 7
• West Ham league win streak4
• Millwall goals conceded, last 4 league games11
• Millwall home league recordW2 L1
• West Ham away league recordW1 D2

Team news

I found no confirmed new injuries for either side in the sources I checked. Millwall midfielder Jenson Metcalfe is available after his red card against Bolton was rescinded, BBC Sport reported.

Both clubs play on Tuesday night: Millwall away at Middlesbrough in the league, and West Ham at home to Fulham in the Carabao Cup. The table and form above are from before those games. Check team news before you bet.

Verdict

1.77 implies 56.5%. I make West Ham about 60% to win. Recent form on both sides backs the favourite, but their away record is weaker, so 1 unit.