Greece vs Germany Prediction and Tips: Double Chance

Greece already beat Germany once this window

Greece and Germany have already met once in this Nations League window, five days ago in Germany, and Greece won it 1-0. That result leaves Greece top of Group A2 on six points from two games, unbeaten, while Germany have taken one point from two and sit third. The rematch is now in Thessaloniki, which flips the home advantage from Germany to Greece.

The market has not moved much to reflect any of that. Germany are priced as clear favourites for the rematch at 1.96, with Greece out at 3.50 and the draw at 3.60 — close to the shape you might expect if the two had not met last week at all. That looks more like a reputation price than a form price: Germany are the bigger footballing nation on paper, but on the pitch in this campaign they have taken one point from two games and just lost to the side they are favoured against here.

We do not have a shot-by-shot breakdown of the first meeting to work from, so this is not a case of Greece deserving the win by some wide underlying margin. It is a case of a specific, recent, relevant data point — a 1-0 win five days ago, with broadly the same players and system on both sides — that the price does not appear to reflect, especially once home advantage moves from Germany to Greece for the rematch.

We could not confirm the starting line-ups or any fresh injury news for either side at the time of writing, so treat that as unknown rather than assumed. Given the recent head-to-head and the venue swap, taking Greece to avoid defeat looks the better side of this argument than laying it.

Greece or draw, the double chance, is the pick at 1.75.

Form guide

Key numbers

• First meeting result (27 Sep, in Germany)Germany 0-1 Greece
• Group A2 points after 2 gamesGreece 6, Netherlands 4, Germany 1, Serbia 0
• Full-time odds (Kambi)Greece 3.50 · Draw 3.60 · Germany 1.96

Team news

No confirmed line-ups or injury news for either side at the time of writing from an official source; we have not guessed at personnel changes.

Verdict

Greece or draw at 1.75 implies a 57.1% chance. Greece won the first meeting five days ago and now add the home advantage Germany had in that game; we make Greece's chance of avoiding defeat here better than the price suggests.