Montenegro vs Latvia Prediction and Tips: Handicap

Group C2's gap between first and fourth

Montenegro and Latvia sit at opposite ends of UEFA Nations League Group C2. Four games into the section, Montenegro have won three and drawn one for 10 points and a +3 goal difference (7 scored, 4 conceded); Latvia have one point from four, with three defeats, two goals scored and six conceded. The two have already met once this cycle: Montenegro won 2-1 away in Riga on 2 October, and this is the return leg in Podgorica.

Latvia's defensive numbers are the main story. They have conceded in all four group games, including both matches against Montenegro and Cyprus, the two sides above them in the table. Montenegro's attack, by contrast, has scored in three of four, with the only blank coming in a 0-0 draw away to Armenia on 5 October. At home, with the first leg already won and a clear edge in form, Montenegro start this as the obvious favourites.

We could not find a confirmed team sheet or injury list for either side this far out, so this is priced on the body of this cycle's results rather than team news. Latvia have nothing to play for in the section and could sit deep to limit the damage, which is the main way a two-goal handicap gets squeezed late on. On the numbers, though, the gap between a group's top and bottom side, backed up by the first-leg scoreline, is enough for Montenegro -1.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.93.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Montenegro points (Group C2, 4 games)10 (3W 1D 0L)
• Latvia points (Group C2, 4 games)1 (0W 1D 3L)
• Montenegro goal difference+3 (7 for, 4 against)
• Latvia goal difference-4 (2 for, 6 against)
• First leg, 2 OctLatvia 1-2 Montenegro

Team news

No confirmed starting line-up or injury list was available for either side three days out from kick-off. This tip is built on each team's results in this Nations League cycle rather than team news.

Verdict

Montenegro -1.5 (Asian handicap) at 1.93 implies a 51.8% chance of Montenegro winning by two or more goals. Montenegro have won by two or more in two of their four Group C2 games this cycle, and already beat Latvia specifically by that margin in the first leg. Latvia have failed to score more than once in any of their four games. The group table and the first leg both point the same way.