England vs Croatia Prediction and Tips: Handicap
Callum Reid prices up the gap between England and Croatia's Nations League group form, five weeks on from their first meeting of the campaign.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓The biggest goal-difference gap in the group, rematched
England and Croatia have already met once in this Nations League group, on 3 October in Zagreb – England won 7-0. That result sits inside a wider pattern: Croatia have conceded 14 goals in their four group games, the joint-worst defensive record in the whole competition, while England have scored 14 and conceded just 3, the best attack and defence in the group.
Croatia's other three results back up the shaky defence: a 2-1 win away at Czechia, then a 1-4 home defeat to Spain and a 1-2 away defeat to Spain either side of the England rout. They sit third in Group A3 with three points from four games.
England, by contrast, have won three of their four group games, with the only slip a 2-3 home defeat to Spain. Since that loss they have won 2-0 away at Czechia, 7-0 away at Croatia, and 3-0 at home to Czechia – three straight wins without conceding.
We have not seen a confirmed England line-up for this one yet, five days out, and with a strong group position already secured there is some chance of changes from the side that won 7-0 last time. We're flagging that rather than ignoring it, which is also why the stake here is below a full unit.
Given the scale of the goal-difference gap and last month's 7-0, Callum's line is England -2 on the Asian handicap, 2.07.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Croatia goals conceded, Nations League group14 (worst in the group)
- England goals scored, Nations League group14 (best in the group)
- England goals conceded, Nations League group3 (best in the group)
- Last meeting, 3 Oct in ZagrebEngland won 7-0
- England's record since the Spain defeat3 wins, 0 conceded
Team news
No confirmed line-up for either side yet. England have already put themselves in a strong position in the group, which is the one thing that could bring changes to the side that won 7-0 in Zagreb; we have not seen a team sheet to confirm either way.
England have all but secured a strong position in the group already, which carries some rotation risk for a side already missing nothing from this game in terms of stakes; Croatia, bottom of the table, could also freshen up their line-up, which cuts both ways.
Verdict
England -2 (Asian handicap) at 2.07 implies a 48.3% chance of England winning by three or more clear goals (a 2-0 win voids the bet under whole-line handicap rules; anything bigger wins it). Croatia have conceded 14 goals in four group games and already lost 0-7 to these opponents last month; England have both the best attack and the best defence in the group. That gap is wide enough to make the price workable even allowing for some rotation risk.
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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