Denmark vs Portugal Prediction and Tips: Match Result
Callum Reid prices up a tight Group A4 fixture in Copenhagen, where Portugal sit top on six points and Denmark's home form has been more mixed.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Form lines pointing the same way, with a catch
Write down the probabilities before looking at the price, and this one is closer than the market suggests. Portugal have won their last two Nations League outings — 1-0 at home to Wales and 2-1 away to Norway — while Denmark split theirs, losing 3-2 away to Norway before beating Wales 2-0 at home. On results alone, Portugal have taken six points from their last two games against the same two opponents Denmark also faced this window; Denmark took three.
The underlying picture is messier than the results table suggests. Denmark were the better side by territory and shots in their win over Wales (61.6% possession, 20 shots to 10), evidence of a Denmark team that can control games at home. Portugal's win in Norway went the other way — Norway had 62% of the ball and 22 shots to Portugal's 12 — so Portugal have been the more clinical of the two sides recently rather than the more dominant one. That is a reason for caution on backing Portugal outright at 2.05, even with the better recent results.
We have not been able to verify a recent head-to-head result between these two sides, and neither federation has confirmed a starting line-up yet. With the draw a live outcome in a genuinely tight fixture between two teams still fighting for their Nations League group, removing it rather than picking a side outright is the more disciplined way to back Portugal's better recent form. The pick: Portugal draw no bet.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Portugal points from last 2 NL games (vs Wales, Norway)6
- Denmark points from last 2 NL games (vs Norway, Wales)3
- Denmark shots vs Wales (27 Sep, won 2-0)20
- Denmark possession vs Wales61.6%
- Portugal shots vs Norway (27 Sep, won 2-1)12
- Portugal possession vs Norway38.0%
Team news
Neither camp has confirmed a starting XI at the time of writing, three days out from kick-off. Nothing in the reporting from either federation's press conferences points to a defensive absence that would change the read above; we will not have a firm team sheet until closer to kick-off.
Denmark had the better underlying numbers in their last home game (20 shots, 61.6% possession against Wales) and there is a route to a Denmark win here if that form holds; Portugal also conceded a lot of territory and shots away to Norway even in victory, so backing them, even with the draw removed, is not risk-free.
Verdict
Portugal's recent results edge Denmark's, but the underlying shot and possession numbers from each side's last outing are close enough that an outright Portugal price of 2.05 undersells the draw risk. At 1.49, Portugal draw no bet keeps the upside from their better recent form while taking the draw off the table.
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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