Barcelona vs Alavés Prediction and Tips: Handicap

Barcelona's scoring margins and Alavés's form

Barcelona sit top of La Liga on a perfect run, and Alavés arrive at Camp Nou seventh, winless in six league games (two draws, four defeats). This is a gulf-in-class fixture, so the question for a handicap bet is less whether Barcelona win than by how much.

Over their last eight league games Barcelona have scored 34 and conceded 9 - the kind of scoring rate that produces big margins rather than nervy 1-0s. The margins in those eight games were +3, +3, +2, +5, +2, +5, +3 and +2: five of the eight were three goals or more, which is what a -2.5 Asian handicap needs to win outright.

Alavés have shipped two or more goals in five of their last eight games, including defeats to Celta Vigo and Atlético Madrid, and have managed only one win (at home to Villarreal) in that spell. We have not found any specific team-news items on injuries or suspensions for either side this far out, so this is built on form and scoring margins rather than confirmed team news - worth factoring into the stake.

Barcelona -2.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.78 implies a 56.2% chance of winning by three goals or more; recent form puts the real number closer to 60-65%, which is where the edge sits. Barcelona -2.5 (Asian handicap) is the pick, for 0.75 units.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Barcelona goals scored, last 8 La Liga games34 (4.25/game)
• Barcelona goals conceded, last 8 La Liga games9 (1.1/game)
• Barcelona games won by 3+ goals (last 8)5 of 8
• Alavés record, last 8 La Liga games2W 2D 4L

Team news

We did not find any specific injury or suspension news for either side this far from kick-off; team news will firm up closer to the match.

Verdict

A heavy favourite against a side low on form and short of goals. The handicap line asks a reasonable question of a Barcelona side that has covered a similar margin in five of its last eight games.