Sunderland vs Leeds United Prediction and Tips: Result
Callum Reid weighs up Sunderland's bottom-of-the-table collapse against Leeds' unbeaten run, and where the draw sits in his pricing.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓A bottom-of-the-table collapse meets a side that doesn't lose
Sunderland's promotion-season bump has gone sharply into reverse. They sit bottom of the Premier League on 4 points from seven games, with a goal difference of -8, and their last four league matches have all been defeats: 0-2 at home to Arsenal, 3-5 away at Manchester City, 0-2 at home to Brighton and 0-2 away at Bournemouth. They have failed to score in three of those four games.
Leeds United, by contrast, are unbeaten in four of their last five league games: a 1-1 draw at Brighton, a 4-1 home win over Newcastle, a 0-0 home draw with Crystal Palace and a 1-1 home draw with Manchester United, with the only defeat a narrow 2-1 loss away at Arsenal. They sit 7th on 10 points with a +3 goal difference, a long way clear of Sunderland in the table.
Sunderland have won at home this season - they beat Fulham and Hull City 1-0 at the Stadium of Light - so this is not a case of a side that cannot function in its own stadium. But a four-match losing streak and the division's worst goal difference is a heavier weight than two earlier 1-0 wins against sides also struggling at the bottom.
We have not seen confirmed team news for either side this far from kick-off. At 1.66, Leeds draw no bet removes the draw risk that has turned up in three of their last five games while still requiring them to beat a bottom-of-the-table side that has lost four in a row. Callum's pick: Leeds United, draw no bet.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Sunderland league position20th, 4 pts, GD -8
- Leeds league position7th, 10 pts, GD +3
- Sunderland's last 4 Premier League games4 defeats
- Leeds' unbeaten run4 of last 5 Premier League games
Team news
No confirmed starting line-ups or injury news for either club this far out. We'll update if anything changes before kick-off.
Leeds have drawn three of their last five league games, so a draw itself is a live outcome here even though it only returns the stake rather than losing it. Sunderland's two home wins this season show they are not completely without a route to victory in this fixture, especially if their recent losing run makes them set up more defensively.
Verdict
The table gap - 7th against 20th, +3 goal difference against -8 - lines up with the underlying runs: Leeds unbeaten in four of five, Sunderland beaten in four straight. Draw no bet at 1.66 asks Leeds to avoid defeat rather than guaranteeing a win, and that extra cushion is where the edge sits once the draw is taken out of the equation.
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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