Scotland vs Slovenia Prediction and Tips: Match Result

Scotland's shot count and a reversed home advantage

Scotland and Slovenia sit level on four points in Group B1, both well behind Switzerland and well clear of bottom side North Macedonia, but they have arrived there by very different routes. Their first meeting, in Ljubljana on 26 September, finished 0-0 despite Scotland having 64.7% of the ball and 17 shots to Slovenia's four.

That pattern has repeated. Away at North Macedonia on 3 October, Scotland had 25 shots and ten on target in a 2-0 win; they create chances for fun against the two weaker sides in this group, even if a second red card of the campaign and some wasteful finishing have kept the scorelines tighter than the territory suggests. The one game they have not dominated is the 0-3 defeat away to Switzerland, where they had two shots all game, but that is a comment on Switzerland rather than on this match.

Slovenia have been efficient rather than dominant: a 2-0 home win over North Macedonia, a point from sitting deep against Scotland, and a battling 1-2 home defeat to Switzerland in which they still had ten shots of their own. They are organised, but nothing in this group suggests they can contain a Scotland side with home advantage, having needed to defend deep away from home just to get their point in September.

We could not confirm either side's starting eleven this far out, and found no fresh injury news for either squad in the general football press. Scotland's discipline, two reds in three games, is worth flagging as a risk to how comfortable this looks, even if it has not stopped them taking points off the group's weaker sides.

At 1.75, the market gives Scotland an implied 57.1% to win outright. Given the gulf in shots the last time they faced a side outside the top of this group, and now getting that fixture at home, Scotland to win is the pick.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Scotland shots in first meeting (0-0, away)17 (5 on target)
• Slovenia shots in first meeting4 (1 on target)
• Scotland shots at North Macedonia (2-0 win)25 (10 on target)
• Slovenia shots at home to Switzerland (1-2 loss)10 (3 on target)
• Scotland red cards this campaign2 in 3 games

Team news

We could not confirm either side's starting eleven this far out from kick-off, and found no specific injury or suspension news in the general football press beyond Scotland's two red cards already picked up this campaign (neither player is suspended for this match).

Verdict

At 1.75, the market gives Scotland an implied 57.1% to win outright. They had almost nineteen more shots than Slovenia managed on their own patch in September, and now get to replay that fixture at home. The price looks fair rather than short, and clears our 3-point edge minimum.