Romania vs Sweden Prediction and Tips: Match Result

Form, goals against, and a repeat fixture in Bucharest

Sweden and Romania played the first leg of this Group B4 pairing eight days ago, Sweden winning 2-1 away with 59.7% possession and eleven shots to Romania's ten, while committing far fewer fouls (6 to 17) and picking up no cards to Romania's five. Three days later Sweden beat Poland 3-1 at home, while Romania went the other way, losing 2-4 to Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The underlying picture after two rounds: Sweden sit top of Group B4 on 6 points from 2 wins, scoring 5 and conceding 2. Romania are bottom on 0 points from 2 defeats, conceding 6 goals in those two games. We have not seen confirmed team news for either side three days out, and a full-strength Sweden XI is not guaranteed, but nothing in the available reporting suggests a changed approach for a game they still need points from.

The market prices Sweden at 1.89 to win outright, an implied chance of around 53%. Given the gap in form, goal difference and the head-to-head from eight days ago, that looks a fair price rather than a short one - the draw and a Romania win both look overpriced by comparison. The pick is Sweden to win at 1.89.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Sweden points, Group B4 (2 games)6
• Romania points, Group B4 (2 games)0
• Sweden goal difference+3 (5-2)
• Romania goal difference-3 (3-6)
• Result when the sides met 8 days agoSweden won 2-1 away

Team news

No confirmed starting line-up for either side at time of writing, three days before kick-off. We have not found any reported injuries or suspensions for either squad - if either manager rotates heavily, that would weaken the case.

Verdict

Sweden to win at 1.89 implies a 53% chance. Sweden's record (6 points, 5 goals for, 2 against) against Romania's (0 points, 3 for, 6 against), plus a 2-1 win in the first leg, supports a number above that.