Napoli vs AS Roma Prediction and Tips: Double Chance
Callum Reid prices up Napoli's shaky home form against an AS Roma side still unbeaten in Serie A this season.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Roma's unbeaten run vs Napoli's home wobbles
Napoli host AS Roma on Saturday with the two clubs heading in opposite directions. Roma sit 3rd on 17 points from seven games, the only unbeaten record left in Serie A outside the very top two, built on five wins and two draws. Napoli are 9th on 10 points, already with three league defeats to their name.
The gap is sharper on the defensive side of the ball. Roma have conceded just three goals in seven Serie A matches, by far the tightest record in the division. Napoli's home form has been uneven: a 3-0 win over Frosinone and a 1-0 win over Bologna either side of a 1-2 home defeat to Como on 30 August, plus a 1-0 loss away at Venezia in their most recent league outing.
The market has Napoli as narrow favourites at 2.80, with the draw at 3.35 and Roma at 2.38 - odds that look generous given Roma's away record this season includes wins at Lecce and Torino. Priced individually, those numbers put Roma's own win chance above what a neutral market price for an away side with this defensive record would usually suggest, and the double chance line (Roma or draw) comes in at 1.41.
Roma's only blemish is a 3-4 home defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League four days before this game, a reminder they can be exposed by top-level quality, but Napoli are a different proposition domestically right now. On the balance of form, the tip is AS Roma or the draw (double chance) at 1.41.
Form guide
Key numbers
- AS Roma Serie A record (7 games)5W-2D-0L, 17pts, 3rd
- AS Roma goals conceded this season3 in 7 league games
- Napoli Serie A record (7 games)3W-1D-3L, 10pts, 9th
- Napoli's last 3 Serie A home gamesW 1-0 Bologna, L 1-2 Como, W 3-0 Frosinone
- Market prices (Full Time)Napoli 2.80 / Draw 3.35 / AS Roma 2.38
Team news
No confirmed team news from either club six days out from kick-off. AS Roma's squad took a Champions League trip four days before this one (a 3-4 home defeat to Real Madrid), which is worth watching for any fatigue, but no specific absences have been reported for either side at the time of writing.
AS Roma's away form has not been tested against a side with real quality all season, and a 3-4 Champions League defeat at home to Real Madrid four days earlier is a reminder they can be got at defensively under pressure. Napoli, for all their recent wobbles, still have Serie A pedigree and home advantage. Stake kept to 1 unit rather than pushed higher.
Verdict
AS Roma or the draw at 1.41 implies a 70.9% chance of Roma avoiding defeat. Roma remain unbeaten in Serie A (5W-2D) with the division's tightest defence - just 3 goals conceded in 7 games - while Napoli have already lost 3 of 7 league matches and were beaten at home by Como. That form gap supports backing the double chance over a straight away win.
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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