Lecce vs Juventus Prediction and Tips: Handicap

A tired favourite and a price that hasn't moved

Lecce are 12th on nine points (goal difference -3); Juventus are 8th on eleven points (goal difference +1) - a modest return for a club of Juventus's history seven games in.

Juventus's last five league games read: draw 1-1 (AC Milan), loss 2-3 (at Sassuolo), win 2-0 (Atalanta), draw 1-1 (at Cagliari), loss 0-3 at home to Lazio. That is one win, two draws and two losses, with eight goals conceded in five matches - and the home defeat to Lazio came in their last Serie A outing. On top of that, Juventus hosted Stade Rennais in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October, drawing 2-2, which leaves them on three days' rest before this trip to Lecce.

Lecce, by contrast, have won two of their last five - including a 3-0 away win at Udinese in their last match - alongside three defeats (0-4 to Roma, 0-3 to Milan, 1-2 to Bologna).

The match-result market still prices Juventus at 1.41 to win outright (an implied 70.9%) and Lecce at 7.50. That is too short a price on a side that has lost two of its last three competitive matches and has just played in Europe three days earlier - and 1.41 sits right on the line of not backing a favourite shorter than 1.40 as a straight bet. The handicap market is the better fit here: Lecce +1.5 at 1.63.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Juventus results, last 5 Serie A games1W-2D-2L
• Juventus goals conceded, last 5 Serie A games8
• Juventus last Serie A result0-3 home loss to Lazio
• Juventus Europa League result 3 days before this match2-2 vs Stade Rennais (home)
• Lecce results, last 5 Serie A games2W-0D-3L
• Lecce's last Serie A result3-0 away win at Udinese

Team news

No confirmed starting line-ups are available this far from kick-off for either side. Juventus hosted Stade Rennais in the Europa League three days earlier, so some rotation after that 2-2 draw is possible, but we have not seen a team sheet confirming it.

Verdict

Juventus at 1.41 to win outright implies a 70.9% chance, which looks short for a side that has lost two of its last three competitive games, conceded eight in five league matches, and turns around in three days from a home European draw. Backing Lecce +1.5 at 1.63 takes the same view on the match without needing Juventus to actually lose - only to not win by two goals or more. That is the pick.