FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction and Tips: Result
Callum Reid weighs up Porto's winless start in the Champions League against PSV's run of away defeats before setting his price at the Estádio do Dragão.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Porto's search for a first European win against a PSV side struggling on the road
Porto and PSV both arrive at the Estadio do Dragao still looking for their first points of the Champions League league phase - Porto 30th with two defeats, PSV 26th with a draw and a defeat, out of 36 teams. Away from Europe, though, their form has gone in opposite directions.
PSV have lost each of their last three away matches in all competitions: 2-1 at ADO Den Haag in the Eredivisie, 1-0 at RB Leipzig in this competition, and 3-2 at FC Twente. All three have come in the last month, and this is another away trip, this time to a Porto side on a run of its own.
Porto have won four domestic games in a row since their last Champions League outing - 2-1 away at Maritimo, 3-1 at home to Benfica, 4-1 away at Casa Pia and 2-1 at home to Moreirense - scoring at least two goals in every one. That domestic form has not translated to Europe yet: Porto lost 0-2 at home to Manchester City and 2-3 away at Real Betis in their two league-phase games so far, which is the obvious hole in this case.
Weighing a home side in good domestic form but winless in Europe against an away side on a three-match losing run on the road, the pick is FC Porto to win at 1.70 - backed more by PSV's specific away form than by any faith in Porto's own European results to date.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Porto domestic results, last 4 gamesW4
- PSV away results, last 3 gamesL3
- Porto Champions League league-phase points0 of 6
Team news
No confirmed line-ups for either side yet, four days from kick-off. We have not been able to verify any fresh injury news beyond what already shows up in recent results, so this should be treated as unconfirmed until matchday.
Porto are themselves without a point in the league phase, having lost at home to Manchester City and away at Real Betis, so their European form does not back up their strong domestic run. If PSV's away form turns around here, or Porto's defence has another leaky night in Europe as it did against Betis (conceding three), this loses.
Verdict
1.70 implies about a 59% chance of a Porto win. Porto's own European form this season offers no evidence for that on its own - they have lost both league-phase games - but PSV's specific away form, three straight defeats in two different competitions, is the sharper signal here, and Porto are unbeaten in four games on their own patch domestically.
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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