AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus Prediction and Tips: Result
Callum Reid writes down his own number for this one before looking at the price, comparing AZ Alkmaar's recent dip against the version of Juventus that's turned up in Europe this season.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓The Juventus that shows up on Thursday nights
AZ Alkmaar have had a rough few weeks. Across their last three games in all competitions they've lost to Feyenoord (0-2), been held 2-2 by second-tier Cambuur, and lost at home to FC Twente without scoring, before being beaten 1-0 away at Ajax. They sit 5th in the Eredivisie on 20 points from 11 games — a reasonable position, but the direction of travel domestically has been downward: no goals scored in their last two matches.
Juventus's own domestic form has had its own dips — a 0-3 home defeat to Lazio and a 2-0 away loss at Genoa inside the same six-game stretch — but they've won their last two, including 2-0 at home to Napoli on 1 November. More relevant to this fixture, Juventus have been a different side in the Europa League: unbeaten after three league-phase games (two wins, one draw), scoring nine goals and conceding only three, for a +6 goal difference that's the best of the four teams meeting on this matchday weekend.
AZ Alkmaar's own league-phase campaign hasn't been bad — two wins and a loss, six scored, two conceded — so this isn't a complete mismatch on paper. But they are out of form right now, having drawn a blank in back-to-back matches, while Juventus arrive on the back of a return to winning ways and a European record that's the strongest in this group. Callum's rule is no favourite shorter than 1.40 as a single; at 1.96 there's enough of a cushion, and the European-form gap is the reason for it.
Juventus to win, 1 unit.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Juventus Europa League record2W-1D-0L, scored 9, conceded 3
- AZ Alkmaar Europa League record2W-0D-1L, scored 6, conceded 2
- AZ Alkmaar last 2 results0-2 at home to FC Twente, 0-1 away at Ajax
- Juventus last 2 results2-0 away at Genoa (L), 2-0 at home to Napoli (W)
Team news
No confirmed starting line-ups yet. Juventus rotated through a difficult October (a heavy home defeat to Lazio, an away loss at Genoa) but have won their last two in all competitions, including a 2-0 league win over Napoli on 1 November. We could not verify AZ Alkmaar's current injury list.
Juventus have lost 2 of their last 6 across all competitions, both away from home, so this is not a one-sided match on current domestic form — the case here rests specifically on their European record rather than Serie A form.
Verdict
Juventus to win at 1.96 implies a 51% chance before overround. Their Europa League league-phase form (2W-1D-0L, +6 goal difference) is the strongest of the four sides in this matchday's ties, against an AZ Alkmaar side that hasn't scored in its last two games.
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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