Celtic vs Besiktas Prediction and Tips: Double Chance

Celtic's league form against a market that disagrees

Callum's rule is to price a match before looking at what the market says, and here the market itself is the story. Celtic are top of the Scottish Premiership - 28 points from 12 games, nine wins, one draw, two defeats - and yet Besiktas (2.16) are priced shorter than Celtic (3.10) to win this Europa League tie at Celtic Park, with the draw at 3.70.

That gap is worth sitting with rather than dismissing. Celtic's most recent league result was a 2-0 defeat away at Falkirk, a side well below them in the table, coming after a 7-1 win over Hearts and a 2-1 win at Hibernian. The table-topping position is real, but so is a side that can lose to a team it should beat comfortably.

Besiktas, meanwhile, go into this 4th in the Süper Lig with 19 points from 10 games, and their most recent league game was a 2-2 draw away at Kasimpasa - not a dominant performance, but not a losing one either, from a side with more continental pedigree than most of Celtic's Scottish league opponents.

Team news for both sides is unconfirmed this far out, and we're not going to pretend otherwise.

Given the market already rates Besiktas's chances above Celtic's own home advantage, and Celtic have shown they can slip up domestically even while running away with the league, besiktas or the draw at 1.36 covers the two outcomes the price itself is already pointing towards.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Celtic Scottish Premiership position1st, 28 pts from 12 games
• Celtic's last league result0-2 away defeat at Falkirk
• Besiktas Süper Lig position4th, 19 pts from 10 games
• Besiktas's last league result2-2 draw away at Kasimpasa

Team news

We have not seen a confirmed starting line-up from either club this far out. Celtic have had a heavy recent fixture schedule across domestic and European football; we can't verify which players are rested or rotated for this one, so that is not part of the case below.

Verdict

At 1.36, Besiktas or draw implies a 73.5% chance - a short price, but one that matches where the market itself sits rather than fighting it. The stake is cut to 0.75 units because Celtic at home, with their crowd and their table position, are a side that can easily turn up and win this outright.