FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction and Tips: Handicap
Callum Reid finds the right handicap line for Bayern Munich's trip to the WWK Arena.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Pricing Bayern's away day in Bavaria
Bayern Munich have not lost in the Bundesliga this season – 3 wins and a draw from 4 games, 14 goals scored, 2 conceded. A straight win is priced at 1.20, too short to be of any use. The question worth asking is not whether Bayern win, but by how much, and that is where the handicap lines sit.
Bayern's recent winning margins have been +4 (5-1 v Stuttgart), 0 (0-0 at Schalke), +1 (2-1 at Elversberg) and +7 (7-0 v Union Berlin) – an average of +3.0 a game, but with real spread either side of it. Augsburg, for their part, have taken 7 points from 4 games with a reasonably steady record, including a 3-0 win over Schalke and a 4-1 win away at Frankfurt, so this is not a side waiting to be flat-track bullied; they do concede, but not in isolation.
At -2.0, Bayern need to win by three or more goals for this to land, by exactly two for it to push and the stake to come back, and by anything less (or not at all) for it to lose. Given the average margin of +3.0 across the last month, with two of the last four results already clearing that bar comfortably (the 5-1 and the 7-0), the -2.0 line at 1.74 looks like fair value rather than the long shot the raw Bayern-to-win price would suggest.
The pick: Bayern Munich -2 on the handicap, at 1.74.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Bayern Munich Bundesliga record3W-1D-0L, 10 pts
- Bayern average winning margin, last 4 BL games+3.0 (range: 0 to +7)
- Bayern goals scored, last 4 BL games14 (3.5/game)
- FC Augsburg Bundesliga record2W-1D-1L, 7 pts
- FC Augsburg goals scored, last 4 BL games11 (2.75/game)
Team news
No referee or confirmed line-up for this one yet. Bayern have rotated their front line through September without it affecting the scoreline much; Augsburg's team news is unconfirmed five days out.
This is the highest-variance pick of the four published this run. Bayern's last four Bundesliga margins were +4, 0, +1 and +7 – an average of +3 that hides a result that would push (the 0-0 away at Schalke) sitting right next to a 7-0. A repeat of a tighter result like the 2-1 at Elversberg (margin of only +1) would also lose this bet outright. Backed at reduced stake for that reason.
Verdict
Bayern Munich -2.0 at 1.74 implies a 57.5% chance of winning by three or more. Their average winning margin in the last 4 Bundesliga games is +3.0, though the spread (0 to +7) is wide. 0.5 units, reflecting that variance.
- ESPN – Bayern Munich results and schedule – Bundesliga results, goals scored/conceded
- ESPN – FC Augsburg results and schedule – Bundesliga results, goals scored/conceded
- ESPN – Bundesliga standings – league table, points, record
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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