AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction and Tips: Handicap
Callum Reid weighs up AC Milan's perfect home record this season against Bologna's shaky away form, and where the value sits in the result market.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Milan's unbeaten home record against a struggling Bologna away side
AC Milan have not dropped a point at San Siro in the league this season. Three home games, three wins - 3-2 against Atalanta, 3-0 against Lecce and 2-0 against Venezia - for eight goals scored and two conceded. That is a side that, home advantage aside, has been the division's most reliable performer in its own stadium.
Bologna travel having won only one of their three away league games: a 2-1 win at Lecce, sandwiched between a 0-1 loss at Napoli and a 0-1 loss at Atalanta. They have scored twice and conceded three in those three away matches, and sit 15th in the table with a goal difference of -4 from seven games, 11 points and two places below Milan.
Milan's overall record across all games this season includes three draws, which is the kind of detail a market can lean on more than the home-only split deserves - but those draws came away from home, against Sassuolo, Lazio and Juventus, not at San Siro. The home/away split here is the stronger signal than the headline form table.
We have not seen confirmed team news for either side this far from kick-off, so there is some uncertainty over absences. At 1.57 for a handicap that only needs Milan to avoid defeat, with a draw refunded as a loss, this still looks on the right side of Callum's edge threshold given the gap in home and away form. Callum's pick: AC Milan -0.5 on the Asian handicap.
Form guide
Key numbers
- AC Milan home record this season3W-0D-0L, 8 goals for, 2 against
- Bologna away record this season1W-0D-2L, 2 goals for, 3 against
- AC Milan position / points4th · 15 pts (GD +7)
- Bologna position / points15th · 5 pts (GD -4)
Team news
No confirmed starting line-ups or injury news for either club this far out. We'll update if anything changes before kick-off.
<p>Milan have drawn three of their last five games in all competitions, so backing them to avoid a draw at home is not automatic even with a perfect home record this season. Bologna's one away win came against a side Milan have themselves beaten comfortably this season, so Bologna are not entirely toothless on the road.</p>
Verdict
Milan's 3-0 home record and Bologna's 1-2 away record over the same sample is the kind of split edge Callum looks for before he checks the price. At 1.57, there's enough gap between that split and a market still pricing in Milan's draw-heavy overall form.
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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