Wales vs Denmark Prediction and Tips: Corners

Wales at home, and why they need the ball

Wales go into this with nothing to show from their first two Group A4 games: beaten 1-0 away at Portugal and 2-0 away at Denmark, without scoring a goal, and bottom of the table on goal difference. Both of those matches were away from home, and in both Wales had under 40 per cent of possession — five shots against Portugal and ten against Denmark. That is a side that has had very little of the ball in this window and has not done much with it when they haven't.

The corner counts back that up. Wales won only two corners away at Portugal and four away at Denmark, both matches where they spent most of the ninety minutes defending. Denmark, for their part, won eight corners away at Norway but only two at home against Wales five days ago, which suggests their corner count depends heavily on how much the opponent commits forward against them rather than being a fixed number.

The context has changed for the rematch. Wales are at home, they are bottom of the group with nothing on the board, and they need a response. A team in that position, with a home crowd behind it and a result to chase, tends to have more of the ball than it did on the road, even where the final ball isn't always end product. Denmark, sitting on three points from two games, have less to prove here and may be content to sit in and play on the counter — exactly the sort of game state that produces a string of blocked crosses and last-ditch clearances rather than clean chances.

We could not confirm the Wales starting eleven or whether their wide options from the away games are fit again, so the line-up is treated as unknown rather than assumed. On the numbers we do have, Wales' away corner tally of two and four looks likely to rise back at Cardiff City Stadium.

Wales over 3.5 corners is the pick, at 1.66.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Wales corners won, away at Denmark (27 Sep)4
• Wales corners won, away at Portugal (24 Sep)2
• Wales shots, last 2 Nations League games10 & 5
• Denmark corners won, away at Wales (27 Sep)2
• Denmark corners won, at home vs Norway (24 Sep)8
• Group A4 standingWales 4th · 0 pts, Denmark 2nd · 3 pts

Team news

No confirmed team news for either side at the time of writing. Wales' line-up is worth checking again closer to kick-off, since a change in wide options would affect this angle.

Verdict

Wales over 3.5 corners at 1.66 implies a 60.2% chance. Wales won four corners in the corresponding away fixture five days ago and two away at Portugal; at home, chasing a first point of the window, we expect that number to climb past the line.