VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid Prediction and Tips: Double Chance
Callum Reid compares Stuttgart's defensive numbers with Atlético's market price ahead of this Champions League tie in Stuttgart.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Stuttgart's defensive record against the market's price
Stuttgart's defensive numbers right now are startling: one goal conceded in their last five matches across all competitions, with four wins and a single 0-1 defeat at home to Dortmund in that run. That includes their two Champions League league-phase games, both wins — 3-1 at home to Viking FK and 3-0 away at Slovan Bratislava — with a combined score of 6-1.
Atlético Madrid arrive on a run of their own: five wins in a row through October, including a derby win over Real Madrid and a 2-0 win at home to Manchester United in their last league-phase outing. Their one blemish in the league phase is a 1-2 defeat away at Liverpool in matchday one.
What stands out is the gap between the market's price and the recent underlying form. Kambi have Atlético as clear favourites at 2.23 to Stuttgart's 2.95, which reads as reputation as much as this season's actual numbers — Stuttgart have barely let a goal past them all autumn, at home, where they have won every fixture since the end of August bar the Dortmund game.
Backing Stuttgart outright at that price is a bet on margin as much as result, and neither side has been blown apart this autumn. The case here is for the draw to be covered rather than ruled out: Stuttgart or draw (double chance) at 1.64.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Stuttgart goals conceded, last 5 matches (all competitions)1
- Stuttgart goals scored, last 5 matches13
- Atletico goals conceded, last 5 matches2
- Atletico's one league-phase defeat1-2 away at Liverpool
Team news
No confirmed line-ups or injury news for either side five days before kick-off. Both squads have been rotating lightly through October without reported fitness problems to key players.
<p>Atlético's attacking numbers this autumn are just as strong as Stuttgart's defensive ones — five wins in a row with 13 goals scored — so this is not a case of a tired or out-of-form away side. If Atlético's finishing matches their recent run, a straightforward away win is the clear way this loses.</p>
Verdict
At 1.64, Stuttgart-or-draw implies a 61.0% chance. Between them these two sides have lost a single match in their last ten (Stuttgart's 0-1 to Dortmund), and Stuttgart have that defensive record and home advantage behind them. 1 unit.
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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