Udinese vs AS Roma Prediction and Tips: Handicap

Pricing the gap between 3rd and 17th

Callum Reid's method is to set a probability for each side before looking at the price, and this fixture is about as lopsided as Serie A gets this season.

AS Roma are 3rd with a 6-3-0 record from 9 games, unbeaten all season, 23 goals scored and just 8 conceded - the better defensive record of the two sides by a wide margin. Udinese are 17th, with a single win from 9 games (1-2-6), 9 goals scored and 18 conceded.

At those numbers, Roma winning outright is close to a formality, which is exactly why Callum doesn't bet the straight win here. The question his method asks is whether Roma's edge is big enough to cover a goal of handicap, and a team conceding under a goal a game on average against one shipping two a game most weeks says yes.

We did not find confirmed team news for either side, so this is built on the season-long form rather than the matchday squad, and Roma's away performances have occasionally been tighter than their home numbers earlier this season - that is the main way this bet loses, if Udinese dig in for a backs-to-the-wall point or narrow defeat.

With the gap this wide, the straight win is poor value; the pick is AS Roma -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.87.

Form guide

Key numbers

• AS Roma season record6W-3D-0L, 23 scored, 8 conceded in 9 games
• Udinese season record1W-2D-6L, 9 scored, 18 conceded in 9 games
• AS Roma league position3rd, 21 points
• Udinese league position17th, 5 points

Team news

No confirmed team news found for either side at the time of writing - this is priced on league form and the season-long numbers rather than the matchday squads.

Verdict

The gap between these two sides is wide enough on the underlying numbers that backing the favourite outright is poor value; the line is where the edge sits.