Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction and Tips: Result
Callum Reid weighs Nottingham Forest's home form against Arsenal's away record ahead of this Premier League meeting.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Forest's home struggles meet a title-chasing Arsenal
Nottingham Forest have not won a Premier League home game this season and, more strikingly, have not scored in any of their three at the City Ground: 0-1 against Leeds, 0-0 against Tottenham, 0-1 against a newly promoted Coventry side. That is a run that would normally point to a one-sided match. It isn't quite that simple, though — Forest put up 24, 24 and 22 shots in their last three league outings (including that home defeat to Coventry), more than their opponents each time, so the underlying territory is there even when the finishing and the scoreline are not.
Arsenal arrive on the back of a 2-1 home win over Leeds and a midweek Champions League win over Lille, with five days to recover before this one — no travel fatigue to factor in. Their away league form this season reads two wins (at Sunderland and Aston Villa) and one defeat (3-0 at Brighton), and they sit second with 15 points from six games against Forest's 5. No team news has been confirmed for either side this far out, so we're working off recent patterns rather than a teamsheet.
Weighing Arsenal's class and away form against a Forest side that creates plenty but has not scored at home all season, Arsenal to win at 1.58 is the pick, for 1 unit.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Forest home goals scored, 2026-27 PL (3 games)0
- Forest home results, 2026-27 PLL, D, L
- Forest shots, last 3 PL games24, 24, 22
- Arsenal away record, 2026-27 PLW, W, L
- Arsenal league position2nd, 15 pts from 6
Team news
No confirmed line-ups four days out for either side. Arsenal have no fresh injury news reported since the midweek Champions League win over Lille; we did not find a confirmed Forest team news update for this fixture.
<p>Forest have out-shot their opponents in each of their last three league games (24, 24 and 22 attempts) without turning that volume into results, so this is not as one-sided on territory as the table and the home record suggest. A day where their finishing clicks is the main danger to this bet, and the price (1.58) is comfortably clear of our 1.40 floor for a single favourite.</p>
Verdict
Arsenal to win at 1.58 implies a 63.3% chance. Forest haven't scored in any of their three Premier League home games this season (0-1 Leeds, 0-0 Spurs, 0-1 Coventry) and sit 15th with 5 points from 6; Arsenal have won two of their three away league games and sit 2nd with 15 points, fresh off a midweek Champions League win. The shot data says Forest are more competitive than their home record implies, but we make Arsenal's winning chance at least as good as the market price here. 1 unit.
- ESPN: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry City – Forest shot data, 19 Sep 2026
- ESPN: Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United – Arsenal's last home league game, 10 Oct 2026
- ESPN Premier League standings – league positions and points, checked 14 Oct 2026
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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