Manchester United vs AS Roma Prediction and Tips: Double Chance
Callum Reid prices his own number for a Manchester United side with one win in their last six against a Roma team riding one of Serie A's better runs, before checking it against the market for this Champions League fixture.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓A form gap the table confirms
Manchester United go into this one 16th in the Premier League with seven points from their opening games, and the underlying form matches the position: one win in their last six across all competitions, with three draws and three losses, including a 0-3 home defeat to AFC Bournemouth just two days before this fixture. They have scored four goals and conceded twelve across that run.
AS Roma, by contrast, sit third in Serie A on 21 points and have won three, drawn two and lost just one of their last six, scoring 16 and conceding 9 in that span - two wins by two or more goals (4-0 v Slovan Bratislava, 4-2 v Cagliari) either side of a draw at Napoli. They have not lost back-to-back games all season.
My own number for this one, built off league position, the underlying run of results, and a United side that has not looked convincing at Old Trafford either, puts Roma's chance of avoiding defeat comfortably above what the double chance price implies. Manchester United's home advantage does not carry enough weight on its own to offset the gap in current form and output between these two sides.
No price-moving team news is out yet this far from kick-off; it is worth a last look at United's line-up nearer the game given how much they have rotated recently. On the numbers as they stand, back AS Roma or draw.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Manchester United points, Premier League7 (16th)
- AS Roma points, Serie A21 (3rd)
- Man Utd goal difference, last 6-8
- AS Roma goal difference, last 6+7
- Man Utd wins, last 60
- AS Roma wins, last 63
Team news
No confirmed team news for either side six days out. Manchester United have used a different back four in each of their last three matches, which is itself a sign of how unsettled things are defensively; worth checking the actual XI closer to kick-off.
Manchester United at home in a European night can still raise their game regardless of league form - this market loses only if United actually win, so the main risk is a United side reacting to recent criticism with one big performance.
Verdict
Roma's last-six record (3W 2D 1L, +7 goal difference) against United's (0W 3D 3L, -8) is as clear a form gap as these markets see. At 1.52 the double chance implies roughly 66% for Roma avoiding defeat; the underlying numbers support a figure at least that high, if not higher.
- ESPN Premier League standings - Manchester United's table position
- ESPN Serie A standings - AS Roma's table position
- Kambi/Unibet UK odds feed - double chance and full-time prices
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
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