Lazio vs Cagliari Prediction and Tips: Handicap

Lazio's unbeaten run against a leaking Cagliari defence

Lazio have not lost a Serie A game this season. Nine matches in, they sit second on 25 points with eight wins and a draw, and the form has only hardened: in their last five league games they have scored 16 and conceded just 4, including a 3-0 win away at Juventus and a 6-2 win away at Sassuolo.

Cagliari have gone the other way. Beaten 4-2 at Roma and 4-0 at Monza in their last five, with a home defeat to Bologna in between, their away form in particular has fallen apart: one win, one draw and two losses on the road since mid-September, shipping eight goals in those two defeats alone.

The market already has Lazio as heavy favourites at 1.43 to win outright, which leaves little room for value in a straight bet. The more interesting price is on the handicap, where backing Lazio to win by two or more clear goals still pays 1.68 - a line the market is slower to adjust than the raw result, even though Lazio have already won by two or more in four of their nine league games this season.

Cagliari have scored in three of their last five away league games, so this is a bet on the margin rather than a shutout. With the goal difference running at +12 in Lazio's favour over the last five matches alone, Lazio -1 at 1.68 is the tip.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Lazio record this season8W-1D-0L (unbeaten)
• Lazio goals, last 5 league games16 scored, 4 conceded
• Cagliari goals conceded, last 3 league games8
• Cagliari away record, last 5 league games1W-1D-2L, conceded 8 in the 2 defeats

Team news

We have not been able to confirm Sunday's exact Lazio or Cagliari line-ups this far out. Both sides' expected XIs look broadly unchanged from their last league outing; if either side makes wholesale changes, the handicap case weakens.

Verdict

Lazio are 8-1-0 for the season and have outscored their last five opponents 16-4. Cagliari's away form has fallen away badly, with back-to-back heavy away concessions at Monza and Roma. At 1.68, Lazio -1 asks the home side to win by two or more, which they have already done four times this season.