Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction and Tips: Double Chance

The shot numbers don't match the home reputation

Galatasaray have taken four points from a possible nine in this season's Champions League league phase: a 1-3 defeat away at Sporting CP, a 1-4 home defeat to Barcelona, and a 4-2 win away at Lille. Across those three matches they have been outshot every time, averaging 8.3 shots a game to their opponents' 15.0, and 3.3 shots on target to the opposition's 7.0. The one time they played this competition at home, against Barcelona, they managed just 5 shots to Barcelona's 22.

VfB Stuttgart, by contrast, are unbeaten in the league phase: a 3-1 home win over Viking FK, a 3-0 away win at Slovan Bratislava, and a 1-1 home draw with Atlético Madrid. Their shot numbers back up the record - 17.0 shots a game to their opponents' 11.3, and only 2.3 shots on target conceded per game, comfortably the better underlying numbers of the two sides here.

RAMS Park's atmosphere is one of the most intimidating in European football, but Galatasaray's one Champions League game in Istanbul this campaign (the Barcelona defeat) did not show home advantage translating against a side of similar or greater quality, and we have no confirmed line-up news yet to say that changes here. Stuttgart arrive with the better underlying numbers and an unbeaten European record, and double chance - Stuttgart win or draw - covers both the way the run of play has gone and the chance Galatasaray's home support drags them level.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Galatasaray shots per CL game (3 games)8.3
• Galatasaray shots on target conceded per CL game7.0
• VfB Stuttgart shots per CL game (3 games)17.0
• VfB Stuttgart shots on target conceded per CL game2.3
• Galatasaray CL record1W 2L
• VfB Stuttgart CL record2W 1D, unbeaten

Team news

No team-news story found that changes either starting XI as things stand; both sides go into this European night off the back of domestic league fixtures last weekend. We have not seen a confirmed line-up for either side yet, six days out.

Verdict

Stuttgart's shot numbers (17.0 a game for, 2.3 on target against) are clearly stronger than Galatasaray's (8.3 for, 7.0 against) across this season's Champions League league phase, and their record is unbeaten against Galatasaray's one win in three. Double chance at 1.63 asks only that Stuttgart avoid defeat, not that they win outright, which fits a side with the better underlying numbers playing away from home.