Como vs Venezia Prediction and Tips: Handicap

Como's home form against the division's bottom side

Como's rise to fourth in Serie A has been built on a remarkable run that also includes a 4-1 win over Manchester United in the Champions League. In their last five league games they have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring eight and conceding four, and they remain unbeaten at home in the league this season.

Venezia, by contrast, sit bottom of the table. One win in their last five league games, with only two goals scored in that spell and eight conceded, including defeats to Genoa and Internazionale either side of a home loss to Lazio. Their one win in that run, 1-0 at home to Napoli, shows they can defend for a point, but it is the exception rather than the pattern, and three of their last four away games have ended in defeat.

Como as outright winners are priced at 1.28, tight enough that the handicap is the better way in: backing them to win by two or more clear goals pays 1.40, a line with some value given Como have already won by two or more in three of their last five matches in all competitions.

Venezia's defensive shut-out of Napoli is the main risk to a bigger scoreline, which is why we are not stretching beyond the -1 line. Como -1 at 1.40 is the tip.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Como record, last 5 league games3W-1D-1L, scored 8, conceded 4
• Como home record this season2W-1D-0L, unbeaten
• Venezia record, last 5 league games1W-0D-4L, scored 2, conceded 8
• Venezia league position20th, bottom of Serie A

Team news

We have not been able to confirm either side's exact starting eleven this far from kick-off. Como have kept a consistent core through their current run of form; nothing in the public team news suggests a forced change at either club.

Verdict

Como have scored 8 and conceded 4 in their last five league games and are unbeaten at home this season; Venezia have won once in five, scoring only twice. At 1.40, Como -1 is the tip.