Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction and Tips: Result
Callum Reid prices Aston Villa's home form against Fulham's recent results before deciding where the value sits in the result market.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Villa's home form against a hard-to-beat visitor
Aston Villa's Premier League form has turned since the middle of October. Three wins and a draw from their last five league games, capped by a 2-1 home win over Manchester City at Villa Park, have lifted them to ninth. The home win over the champions stands out in particular: Villa have scored nine and conceded seven across the five games, a reasonable underlying number for a mid-table side finding its feet.
Fulham's results have also picked up, with two wins in their last two league games, but the underlying numbers are thinner. Four goals scored in five league matches, with two of those five games goalless or finishing 1-1. Fulham are difficult to beat away from home this season, but they are not scoring freely while doing it.
This is the kind of match-up where pricing it before looking at the market earns its keep. Villa at home, in form, against a Fulham side that wins low-scoring away games rather than overwhelming teams, points to a Villa win being the most likely outcome, with the draw the next most likely result given how both sides have played recently.
We could not confirm either manager's team news for Saturday, so this reflects the underlying form rather than the final team sheets. On the numbers, the case is for Aston Villa to avoid defeat at Villa Park: Aston Villa draw no bet.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Aston Villa Premier League record, last 53W 1D 1L
- Fulham Premier League record, last 52W 2D 1L
- Aston Villa goals for/against, last 5 PL games9 for, 7 against
- Fulham goals for/against, last 5 PL games4 for, 3 against
Team news
We could not confirm either side's starting XI for Saturday at the time of writing. Villa have had a settled XI through their recent run of results; Fulham's team news closer to kick-off, particularly up front, is worth checking before backing this.
<p>Fulham have not lost back-to-back league games all season and have won their last two on the road, so this is not a one-sided match-up — Villa have also drawn once in this run. A draw would void the bet rather than lose it, which is the point of this line, but an early Fulham goal would make for a nervy afternoon at Villa Park.</p>
Verdict
Aston Villa draw no bet at 1.43 implies a 69.9% chance of a Villa win once a draw is taken out of the equation. Villa have won three of their last five league games, including a home win over the champions, while Fulham have managed only one win and four goals from their own last five. The draw no bet line protects the stake if the game finishes level, which Villa's draw against Brentford shows is not out of the question. Full stake given the short enough price and the gap in recent home form.
Bets who wins and by how much. Prices every match himself before looking at the market and only bets where the two disagree, with a preference for handicaps over straight winners.
More predictions
Barcelona vs Alavés
Manchester City vs Brighton
