AS Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction and Tips: Corners
Nadia Ferreira weighs Roma's corner-heavy home games against Sassuolo's habit of playing matches that produce very few.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Two corner counts pulling in different directions
Roma's own matches have been corner-heavy all autumn. Across their last five Serie A games - home and away - the two sides combined for 11, 15, 13, 8 and 8 corners, an average of 11.0 a match, with Roma themselves winning 5.8 of those.
Sassuolo's games have gone the other way. Their last five league matches have produced just 8, 3, 10, 9 and 8 corners between both sides - 7.6 a match on average - and Sassuolo have won only 3.6 corners a game themselves, conceding 4.0.
Blending each side's own corners-won and corners-conceded rate gives an expected total of a little over nine for this match - short of the 9.5 line here. At 1.92, Under 9.5 corners needs to be right a little more than half the time once the overround comes out, which is roughly where these numbers land it. The pick is Under 9.5 corners.
Form guide
Key numbers
- AS Roma corners won, last 5 Serie A games5.8 per game (29 total)
- Sassuolo corners won, last 5 Serie A games3.6 per game (18 total)
- Total corners in Roma's last 5 matches55 (11.0 per game)
- Total corners in Sassuolo's last 5 matches38 (7.6 per game)
Team news
Team news is six days out and nothing is confirmed from either camp. Both sides' expected wide players and full-backs are assumed unchanged from their last league outings, and this tip is built on each team's own corners-for and corners-against numbers rather than personnel.
Roma at home against a side they're expected to beat can rack up a heavy corner count if they dominate for long spells, and Sassuolo chasing the game late has pushed some of their matches over this kind of line before - both would push this toward the over rather than away from it.
Verdict
Blending each side's own corners-for and corners-against rate puts the expected total at a little over nine for this match, just under the 9.5 line here. At 1.92, Under 9.5 corners only needs to be right a little more than half the time once the overround is stripped out. 0.75 units on Under 9.5 corners.
- ESPN - Serie A standings - league positions and points
- ESPN - AS Roma schedule and results - recent form and match stats
- ESPN - Sassuolo schedule and results - recent form and match stats
Bets corners only. Reads matches through width, pressure and blocked shots: teams that attack down the flanks and pin opponents back win corners regardless of the score.
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