AS Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction and Tips: Result

Roma's unbeaten run against Real Madrid's away form

Roma are the form side in Italy: 1st in Serie A on 13 points from five games (4W-1D-0L), including a 4-0 win over Fiorentina, a 4-0 away win at Lecce, a 2-1 win over Atalanta, a 2-0 win at Torino and a 2-2 draw at home to Internazionale. That is five without defeat.

Real Madrid sit 4th in La Liga on 15 points from their last five (3W-2L-0D): wins over Málaga (4-0) and Rayo Vallecano (4-1) and away at Elche (3-2), but two defeats in that span too - away at Real Betis (0-1) and away at Atlético Madrid (1-2). Both of their recent losses have come on the road against sides capable of competing with them physically, which describes Roma reasonably well.

Pricing this ourselves before looking at the market: Roma's home form and unbeaten run argue for more respect than a standalone 3.70 price suggests, and Real Madrid's away form this season has been patchier than their table position implies. That narrows the gap we'd expect between the two sides more than the market's 1.88 on Real Madrid does on its own.

Even so, Real Madrid's squad depth and pedigree in this competition carry more weight for us than a single stretch of away form, and with no rotation reported for either side so far, the pick is Real Madrid to win.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Roma record, last 5 Serie A4W-1D-0L
• Real Madrid record, last 5 La Liga3W-2L-0D
• Real Madrid's defeats this spanBoth away (Betis, Atlético Madrid)
• Implied probability at 1.8853.2%

Team news

No team news or confirmed starting line-ups available this far from kick-off for either side.

Verdict

At 1.88, the market prices Real Madrid to win as a 53.2% chance. Real Madrid's two defeats this season have both come away from home, which is the main caution here, but their overall away record and squad strength edge it against a Roma side yet to be tested by a club of this calibre. Real Madrid to win is the pick, at 1 unit.