Napoli vs Bodø/Glimt Prediction and Tips: Corners

Two sides short on corners in Europe

Napoli go into matchday three of the Champions League league phase with nothing to show for it - a 0-1 home defeat to Arsenal, then a 3-1 loss away at Villarreal, leaving them 32nd in the 36-team league phase table. Bodø/Glimt have had the better start, sitting 24th with three points after a shock 1-0 win over Borussia Dortmund at home, either side of a 0-5 defeat away at Bayern Munich.

Corners are where this match gets interesting. Across their last eight matches in all competitions, Napoli have won 6, 5, 10, 5, 2, 5, 0 and 4 corners - an average of 4.6 a game, and only the 10 against Bologna at home came in above Kambi's main 'Napoli total corners' line of 6.5. In their two Champions League outings specifically they managed 0 corners at home to Arsenal and 4 away at Villarreal - both well below that line.

The shape explains the numbers. Antonio Conte's Napoli have set up narrow and direct in Europe so far, looking to play through the middle rather than work the ball into wide corner-territory, and in both continental games this season they have had long spells with next to no sustained possession in the final third. A team that is not getting into the width of the pitch is a team that is not winning corners, whatever the form table around it says.

Bodø/Glimt do not change that picture much from the other side of the ball. Known at home in Norway for pressing high and playing with width, in Europe they have been far more compact: 3 corners away at Bayern Munich and 4 at home against Dortmund in the game they won. Neither performance suggests they will push Napoli into conceding a flurry of corners defending their own box, nor that they will add many of their own if Napoli sit in at all.

The caveat is the sample size - eight Napoli matches and two Bodø/Glimt ones is not a season's data, and Napoli's 10-corner outing against Bologna shows what happens when they do dominate a weaker side at home. Team news for both sides is still unconfirmed with two days to go. But on the numbers available, the tip is Napoli under 6.5 corners at 1.95.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Napoli corners won, last 8 matches (all comps)6, 5, 10, 5, 2, 5, 0, 4
• Napoli corners average, last 84.6 per game
• Matches Napoli won 6 or fewer corners, last 87 of 8
• Bodø/Glimt corners won, 2 Champions League games4 (vs Dortmund), 3 (at Bayern)
• Market's main Napoli corners line6.5 (1.74 over / 1.95 under)

Team news

We have not found confirmed line-ups for either side with the game still two days away. Napoli have injury and rotation questions after a congested run of fixtures; Bodø/Glimt's team news from Norway is harder to verify this far out. Treat the starting XI as unconfirmed.

Verdict

Under 6.5 Napoli corners at 1.95 implies a 51.3% chance. Napoli have finished with 6 or fewer corners in seven of their last eight matches - an 87.5% rate - with an average of 4.6 per game. Even allowing for the small sample and the Bologna outlier, that is a real gap between our number and the market's.