Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction and Tips: Corners
Nadia Ferreira checks the corners market for Chelsea vs Bournemouth, built on width, game state and recent team corner counts.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓Who wins the corners battle
Nadia's model starts with width: teams that attack through genuine wingers and overlapping full-backs win far more corners than sides who sit in and defend the box. Chelsea's front line has that profile, and the data backs it up - they won 11 corners against Hull City and 12 away at Brentford in their last two league outings, after a quieter 3 in the Arsenal defeat before that.
Bournemouth, by contrast, have been winning corners sparingly on the road: just 2 against Brentford and 3 at Newcastle in their last two away Premier League games. A mid-table side without the ball for long spells away from home typically means Chelsea doing most of the attacking - and most of the corner-winning - themselves.
Given Chelsea's own corner count has cleared this line in two of their last three games on its own, without needing anything from Bournemouth, the pick is Chelsea over 5.5 corners at 1.62.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Chelsea corners won, last 3 PL games3, 11, 12
- Chelsea corners won, last 2 home PL games11 and 12
- Bournemouth corners won, last 3 PL games3, 2, 3
- Bournemouth corners won, last 2 away PL games2 and 3
Team news
No confirmed starting line-ups were available this far from kick-off, so wide-player availability on both sides is assumed rather than confirmed.
The sample is short - just three matches of boxscore data - and one flat, low-corner performance from Chelsea would break this. It's backed at a single unit rather than as a banker.
Verdict
Chelsea over 5.5 corners at 1.62 implies a 61.7% chance. Chelsea have won at least eleven corners in each of their last two home league games, comfortably clear of this line, while Bournemouth's away matches have been low-corner affairs that suggest little resistance at the other end. The obvious caveat is sample size - three matches of data is thin - which is why this sits at a single unit rather than more.
- ESPN match summary - Hull City vs Chelsea - corner count
- ESPN match summary - Chelsea vs Brentford - corner count
- ESPN match summary - Brentford vs Bournemouth - corner count
- ESPN match summary - Bournemouth vs Newcastle - corner count
Bets corners only. Reads matches through width, pressure and blocked shots: teams that attack down the flanks and pin opponents back win corners regardless of the score.
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