Benfica vs Celtic Prediction and Tips: Corners

Two sides whose matches keep producing corners

Celtic's matches have been producing a lot of corners lately, regardless of opponent or venue. Their last four competitive matches - home games against Rangers and Ferencváros, away trips to St Johnstone and St Mirren - have finished with 12, 14, 13 and 16 total corners. That is 55 corners across four games, an average of almost 14 a match, and it has followed Celtic to Glasgow, Perth and Paisley alike.

Benfica's numbers are more uneven but still point the same way more often than not: 14 total corners at home against Gil Vicente, 11 away in this competition at Milan and 10 away at Moreirense, against a quieter 6 in their most recent match at Porto and 8 away at Marítimo. Three of their last five matches have cleared the ten-corner mark on their own.

Both teams play with width - Benfica through wingers and overlapping full-backs, Celtic with wide forwards and attacking full-backs pushing on under their pressing system - and both have faced opponents who sit in and defend their box, the kind of game state that produces blocked crosses and deflected shots. Put a side like that at home to a side like that and the match total tends to run above the 9 or 10 mark that bookmakers set from season averages.

We cannot confirm either side's starting wide players six days out - a withdrawn winger is the one thing that would change this number meaningfully - so this comes with that caveat attached, and we have trimmed the stake given Benfica's quiet corner count against Porto shows there is some variance here.

At 1.52, the market's 9.5 corners line implies a 65.8% chance of going over. Both sides' recent corner counts clear that line more often than not. Over 9.5 corners at 1.52 is the pick, 0.75 units.

Form guide

Key numbers

• Celtic last 4 competitive matches - total corners12, 14, 13, 16 (avg 13.75)
• Benfica last 5 matches - total corners6, 11, 14, 10, 8 (avg 9.8)
• Celtic corners won, last 4 matches40 for, 15 against
• Benfica corners won, last 5 matches30 for, 19 against
• Over 9.5 corners - implied probability at 1.5265.8%

Team news

We could not confirm either side's starting wide players six days out, which matters for a corners tip - a missing winger or attacking full-back would move this number. Check team news closer to kick-off.

Verdict

Over 9.5 corners at 1.52 implies a 65.8% chance. Celtic's last four matches have averaged almost 14 corners and Benfica have cleared ten corners in three of their last five, both ahead of this line.