AC Milan vs Internazionale Prediction and Tips: Corners
Nadia Ferreira looks at how few corners both Milan clubs have been producing lately before pricing the corners market for the derby.
The prediction is at the end of the analysis ↓A derby that has produced fewer corners than the price suggests
The Milan derby carries a reputation for being a cagey, physical game rather than a corner-fest, and the numbers from both sides' recent Serie A matches back that up. AC Milan's last five league games have produced just 31 corners in total between both teams — an average of 6.2 — with four of the five finishing with nine corners or fewer.
Internazionale's recent matches have been a little busier at 35 corners across their last five, an average of 7.0, but that is still some way below the 8.5 line this match is priced around. Both sides have tended to dominate territory against weaker opponents without working the ball into wide crossing positions especially often; Inter's six corners at Venezia and Milan's two at Bologna are typical of how both teams' games have gone lately.
Put the two sides' recent corner counts together and the expected total for Saturday's derby sits closer to seven than nine, with the market pricing the 8.5 line almost as a coin flip (1.81 over, 1.85 under) rather than reflecting how low-key both teams' corner counts have actually been.
We could not confirm the starting line-ups for either side, and a change in the wide areas would move this number, but on the data available the derby looks more likely to stay under the total: under 8.5 corners.
Form guide
Key numbers
- Corners in Milan's last 5 Serie A games (both teams)31, avg 6.2
- Corners in Inter's last 5 Serie A games (both teams)35, avg 7.0
- Milan's own corners won, last 5 Serie A games15
- Inter's own corners won, last 5 Serie A games24
Team news
We have not been able to confirm either manager's starting eleven for the derby. Both sides have used settled wide areas recently; a late change to either full-back pairing is worth checking nearer kick-off.
<p>Derbies carry their own logic — nerves, cagey starts and a willingness to shut the game down can suppress corners even further, but a red card or a side chasing the game late can also open a match right up. Milan's trip to Udinese in this sample finished with nine corners between the sides, so this is not a guaranteed under.</p>
Verdict
Under 8.5 corners at 1.85 implies a 54.1% chance. Both sides' last five Serie A games have produced corner totals well south of 8.5 on average — 6.2 for Milan's games, 7.0 for Inter's — and the market's own near-even pricing around this line does not yet reflect that gap. Stake kept at 0.75 units because derbies can play differently to league-average matches and because we could not confirm either side's wide starters.
Bets corners only. Reads matches through width, pressure and blocked shots: teams that attack down the flanks and pin opponents back win corners regardless of the score.
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